Language:English
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)
Prediction 51.15%1.96fair odd
EV -0.262%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%51.06%51.07%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.851.9555.56%53.62%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 48.85%2.05fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%48.94%48.93%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.922.0055.56%52.14%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local): 51.15%; Real Madrid (Visit): 48.85%. For Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -0.262%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -0.262%E -0.134%K -0.275%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -8.65%E -4.62%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.773%E -0.399%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -0.773%E -0.399%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.28%E -0.666%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.28%E -0.666%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 15:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.28%E -0.666%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.28%E -0.666%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.28%E -0.666%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -8.16%E -4.34%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -1.80%E -0.935%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -8.65%E -4.62%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -2.31%E -1.21%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -9.62%E -5.20%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -4.25%E -2.17%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -10.60%E -5.79%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.35%E -2.33%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.35%E -2.33%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-05 14:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.35%E -2.33%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.65%E -4.62%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -2.30%E -1.15%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.23%E -2.69%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.23%E -2.69%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 14:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.30%E -1.15%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-05 15:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -2.78%E -1.40%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-05 14:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -2.78%E -1.40%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.27%E -1.65%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-05 14:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 14:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.07%E -6.70%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.07%E -6.70%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.07%E -6.70%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -2.78%E -1.40%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-05 15:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -2.78%E -1.40%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-05 15:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.30%E -1.15%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-05 14:47 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.74%E -2.43%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-05 14:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 14:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.92%EV -7.18%E -3.78%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 14:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -7.42%E -4.10%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -7.67%E -4.06%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-05 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.93%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-05 14:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-05-05 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-05 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58% | 2.0% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34% | 2.4% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.86% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.98% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16% | 11.4% | 2026-05-05 15:05 |