The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 39.81%2.51fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.672%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%40.03%39.70%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.352.4744.44%42.66%42.55%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 60.19%1.66fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.97%60.30%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6365.79%63.31%63.29%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 39.81%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 60.19%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.47, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -1.66%E -0.672%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-16 08:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.10%E -1.93%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-16 08:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.10%E -1.93%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-16 08:45
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-16 08:43
DraftKings🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.65%E -1.51%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.30%E -2.71%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 08:40
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.65%E -1.51%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 08:45
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.91%E -3.10%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 08:50
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.91%E -3.10%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 08:50
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 08:45
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.31%E -4.75%K -13.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 08:39
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.24%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-16 08:40
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.24%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 08:45
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.75%EV -5.64%E -2.38%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.25%EV -1.90%E -1.16%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 08:35
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 08:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 08:45
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 08:45
ReBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 08:45
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.91%E -5.17%K -14.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 08:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.52%E -5.60%K -16.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-16 08:40
William Hill🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -6.84%E -2.92%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -1.90%E -1.16%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-16 00:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.00%EV -6.84%E -2.92%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 08:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.43%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.11%E -3.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 08:44
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.43%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.91%E -5.17%K -14.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-16 08:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:45
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:50
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:55
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.70%E -2.31%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-15 19:54
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.50%E -1.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 16:49
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 00:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 00:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -8.52%E -5.60%K -16.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.