The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 41.34%2.42fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.325%
Kelly -0.558%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.49%41.29%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.272.252.4046.95%44.02%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit)

Prediction 58.66%1.70fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.513%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%58.51%58.71%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.611.611.6966.23%62.05%62.11%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 41.34%; Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Visit): 58.66%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -0.781%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.781%E -0.325%K -0.558%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 08:55
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -1.19%E -0.500%K -0.859%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -4.97%E -3.07%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 08:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.02%E -0.853%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-16 08:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.02%E -0.853%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-16 08:44
FanDuel🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.43%E -1.03%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 08:54
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.85%E -1.21%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-16 08:54
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.85%E -1.21%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 08:50
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.85%E -1.21%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 08:49
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -2.85%E -1.21%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.73%E -4.23%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 08:54
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.85%E -1.21%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 08:49
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -3.67%E -1.58%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.04%E -1.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 08:45
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.73%E -4.23%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.73%E -4.23%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 08:54
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 08:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.92%E -2.14%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 08:54
MyBookie.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.74%E -2.52%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 08:53
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.98%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.21%E -1.95%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 08:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.98%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 08:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:04
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:04
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:05
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -7.81%E -3.50%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 08:05
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.21%E -1.95%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 23:34
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 08:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 08:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 08:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 08:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -9.67%E -6.28%K -17.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 08:54
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -11.12%E -5.17%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -0.867%E -0.513%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 15:02
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -11.12%E -5.17%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 23:28
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.48%EV -11.94%E -5.61%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.52%EV -11.43%E -7.57%K -22.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-16 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.