The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 43.42%2.30fair odd
EV -0.133%
Edge -0.058%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.21%43.78%43.29%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.3050.00%46.64%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV +0.146%
Edge +0.082%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%56.22%56.71%57.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.7763.69%59.48%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 43.42%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 56.58%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.767. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.770, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.146%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -13.16%E -6.58%K -13.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.146%E +0.082%K +0.189%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-11 12:47
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.986%E -0.563%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:04
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.95%E -3.75%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.12%E -1.22%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.81%E -2.24%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 08:44
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:45
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:40
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 07:54
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -0.133%E -0.058%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 08:45
BetUS🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.78%E -2.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 08:54
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 08:39
FanDuel🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -2.74%E -1.22%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-12 08:45
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 08:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 08:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 08:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 08:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 07:54
MyBookie.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -4.91%E -2.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -6.08%E -3.66%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-12 08:44
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 08:39
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.30%E -1.02%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 08:39
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.47%E -2.03%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
ReBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-12 08:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.47%E -2.03%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 08:45
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 08:45
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 08:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.68%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 56.32%EV -10.04%E -6.31%K -17.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-12 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.61%EV -11.86%E -5.84%K -11.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.39%EV -11.17%E -7.11%K -19.60%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 08:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.