The School of Odds
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Tokyo Yakult Swallows v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-14 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local)

Prediction 44.46%2.25fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.598%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.69%44.37%44.30%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.102.102.2850.76%47.53%47.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 55.54%1.80fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.63%55.70%58.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.701.7562.11%58.94%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local): 44.46%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 55.54%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV +1.36%E +0.598%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -9.47%E -5.81%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-14 08:55
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%EV -1.30%E -0.588%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%EV -4.47%E -2.60%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-14 08:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.19%E -0.997%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.02%E -2.94%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 08:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.19%E -0.997%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.02%E -2.94%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 08:25
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.19%E -0.997%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.35%E -5.06%K -12.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-14 08:35
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50%EV -3.53%E -1.63%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -3.36%E -1.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-14 08:50
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.42%E -2.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.58%E -3.28%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 08:30
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.42%E -2.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.58%E -3.28%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 08:30
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.42%E -2.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-14 08:33
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -4.42%E -2.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -10.58%E -6.57%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 08:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.75%E -2.71%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.58%E -3.28%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 08:45
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.36%E -1.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-14 08:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.02%E -2.94%K -7.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-14 08:40
ReBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-14 08:40
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 08:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 08:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 08:45
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 08:39
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 08:39
BetUS🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -8.42%E -4.09%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.36%E -1.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.80%E -1.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 08:50
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.36%E -1.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 08:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.58%E -3.28%K -7.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 08:45
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-14 08:45
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.35%E -5.06%K -12.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-14 08:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.08%E -5.54%K -11.08%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -9.47%E -5.81%K -15.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-14 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.97%EV -12.42%E -6.30%K -12.80%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.03%EV -10.58%E -6.57%K -17.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-14 08:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.