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Saitama Seibu Lions v Orix Buffaloes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Saitama Seibu Lions (Local)
Prediction 56.64%1.77fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +5.62%
Growth +0.269%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.82%56.52%56.70%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.681.8563.29%59.34%59.52%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Orix Buffaloes (Visit)
Prediction 43.36%2.31fair odd
EV +1.90%
Edge +0.809%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%43.48%43.30%48.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.152.152.3550.25%46.59%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saitama Seibu Lions (Local): 56.64%; Orix Buffaloes (Visit): 43.36%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV +4.78%E +2.58%K +5.62%G +0.269% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -13.71%E -6.89%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-23 03:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-23 04:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -10.24%E -4.95%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 04:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.45%E -0.834%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -11.11%E -5.42%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 04:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -2.02%E -1.17%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.28%E -6.64%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-23 04:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -4.17%E -1.89%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 04:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 15:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.28%E -2.53%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.28%E -2.53%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.42%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.266%E -0.116%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.42%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.42%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.42%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-23 04:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.42%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.90%E +0.809%K +1.41%G +0.027% | 3.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.90%E +0.809%K +1.41%G +0.027% | 3.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -2.00%E -0.885%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-23 04:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 04:48 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 04:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 04:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.07%EV -10.51%E -6.65%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 04:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.