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Saitama Seibu Lions v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Saitama Seibu Lions (Local)
Prediction 43.40%2.30fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +0.850%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%43.21%43.67%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3548.78%45.37%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)
Prediction 56.60%1.77fair odd
EV -0.956%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.79%56.33%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.671.7564.10%60.54%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saitama Seibu Lions (Local): 43.40%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 56.60%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.00%E +0.850%K +1.48%G +0.030% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.71%E -7.51%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.173%E -0.075%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.173%E -0.075%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-04 08:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.34%E -1.04%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.62%E -4.01%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 08:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.34%E -1.04%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.31%E -5.13%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -1.52%E -0.874%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -2.65%E -1.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-04 08:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 08:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 08:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.88%E -5.51%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 08:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.51%E -2.05%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.45%E -5.90%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.95%E -2.26%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -5.38%E -2.47%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -0.956%E -0.546%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.38%E -2.47%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.35%E -2.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.38%E -2.47%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 08:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.79%E -2.23%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.79%E -2.23%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-04 08:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.68%E -3.11%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.62%E -4.01%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV -8.42%E -3.99%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -4.92%E -2.93%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 08:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.22%E -1.88%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.35%E -2.57%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 08:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 08:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 08:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.85%E -4.22%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 08:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -11.02%E -5.38%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -7.18%E -4.38%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 08:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.