The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 05:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 37.35%2.68fair odd
EV +5.71%
Edge +2.02%
Kelly +3.12%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.19%37.30%37.34%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.522.502.8342.92%39.64%40.00%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Visit)

Prediction 62.65%1.60fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -6.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%62.70%62.66%65.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5469.93%66.48%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 37.35%; Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Visit): 62.65%. For Orix Buffaloes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV +5.71%E +2.02%K +3.12%G +0.178%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -7.91%E -5.38%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 04:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV +5.71%E +2.02%K +3.12%G +0.178%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -7.91%E -5.38%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 04:49
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV +0.476%E +0.177%K +0.282%G +0.001%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -4.77%E -3.14%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 04:49
BetUS🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV -1.39%E -0.527%K -0.849%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -4.77%E -3.14%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-15 04:39
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.15%E -2.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 04:39
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.15%E -2.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 04:39
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 04:44
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 04:39
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 04:49
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -6.65%E -4.47%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 04:44
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.28%E -4.92%K -15.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 04:32
MyBookie.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.75%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 04:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.75%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.28%E -4.92%K -15.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 04:39
Coolbet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.87%E -2.33%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.15%E -2.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 04:54
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 04:38
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 04:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 04:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 04:44
ReBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.65%E -4.47%K -13.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 04:39
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.65%E -4.47%K -13.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 04:49
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.28%E -4.92%K -15.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 04:39
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.62%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.28%E -4.92%K -15.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 04:39
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.49%E -3.46%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.15%E -2.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 04:34
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:50
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:49
Bally Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -9.24%E -3.80%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -3.52%E -2.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 04:48
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.36%E -4.32%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.15%E -2.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 04:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.36%E -4.32%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 04:54
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.36%E -4.32%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.03%E -4.02%K -12.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.36%E -4.32%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -9.16%E -6.32%K -20.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.03%EV -12.97%E -5.57%K -9.75%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.97%EV -10.41%E -7.28%K -24.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.