The School of Odds
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Orix Buffaloes v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 35.58%2.81fair odd
EV -0.014%
Edge -0.005%
Kelly -0.008%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.50%35.80%35.56%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.602.8141.67%38.20%38.46%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 64.42%1.55fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%64.20%64.44%65.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.471.471.5371.94%68.13%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 35.58%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 64.42%. For Orix Buffaloes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.8104. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.8100, with an expected value of -0.014%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -0.014%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 08:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -2.50%E -0.914%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 05:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -2.50%E -0.914%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 05:00
BetUS🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -3.22%E -1.18%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 08:40
FanDuel🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -3.22%E -1.18%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.31%E -3.61%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 08:55
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.93%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 08:25
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.93%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 08:25
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.93%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.31%E -3.61%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 08:55
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.93%E -1.45%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 08:20
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -4.28%E -1.59%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 08:25
Coolbet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.00%E -1.87%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 08:55
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.59%E -4.55%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 01:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.53%E -6.00%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 05:15
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.77%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.77%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.77%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.66%E -3.15%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 05:19
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.31%E -3.61%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 05:10
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.31%E -3.61%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.59%E -4.55%K -14.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 08:55
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 05:10
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 08:55
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 01:15
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:50
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:50
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.37%E -2.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:55
Fanatics🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -7.24%E -5.03%K -16.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 08:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -12.82%E -5.23%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.31%EV -8.53%E -6.00%K -20.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -13.54%E -5.57%K -9.47%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.61%EV -10.46%E -7.52%K -26.82%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 08:53
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -14.60%E -6.08%K -10.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -1.44%E -0.942%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.