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Orix Buffaloes v Chiba Lotte Marines

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orix Buffaloes (Local)

Prediction 54.47%1.84fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.780%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.33%54.58%54.55%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.8159.88%57.88%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit)

Prediction 45.53%2.20fair odd
EV +0.170%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.42%45.45%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.072.052.2050.76%48.37%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orix Buffaloes (Local): 54.47%; Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit): 45.53%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.196. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.170%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.170%E +0.077%K +0.142%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 08:50
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.170%E +0.077%K +0.142%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 08:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-04 08:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-04 08:48
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -3.59%E -2.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -3.47%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-04 08:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.47%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-04 08:50
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.77%E -3.34%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.47%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 08:55
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.59%E -2.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-04 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 08:55
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 08:50
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 08:49
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-04 08:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 08:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 08:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.38%E -2.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 08:50
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -1.41%E -0.780%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -4.84%E -2.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-04 08:45
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.59%E -2.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 08:45
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.23%E -3.00%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 08:50
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.23%E -3.00%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 08:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.23%E -3.00%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 08:50
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.23%E -3.00%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 08:53
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.77%E -3.34%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 08:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.40%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 08:45
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-04 08:50
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -6.66%E -3.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 08:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.99%EV -5.77%E -3.34%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%EV -7.57%E -3.73%K -7.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.68%E -2.67%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 08:45
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.86%E -4.01%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 08:50
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.40%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.94%E -4.47%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 08:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.83%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.17%EV -10.30%E -5.23%K -10.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-04 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.