The School of Odds
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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 61.58%1.62fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%61.39%61.56%62.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.541.551.5968.49%64.87%64.52%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 38.42%2.60fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.61%38.44%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.452.5544.44%41.33%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 61.58%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 38.42%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.09%E -1.32%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 18:28
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -2.71%E -1.71%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -3.17%E -1.26%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 03:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -2.71%E -1.71%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -3.17%E -1.26%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 03:45
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -3.33%E -2.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -4.32%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 03:35
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.33%E -2.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.71%E -1.90%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 01:40
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.33%E -2.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -7.01%E -2.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 03:50
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.33%E -2.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 03:45
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.02%E -0.792%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-17 03:50
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.02%E -0.792%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-17 03:40
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -4.71%E -1.90%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 03:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:45
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:45
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:45
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -3.94%E -2.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.63%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:50
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.56%E -2.94%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 03:55
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.56%E -2.94%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 03:55
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.17%E -3.36%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 03:45
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -3.17%E -1.26%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 03:40
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 03:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.48%E -2.23%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 03:44
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 03:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 03:40
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 03:40
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:40
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 03:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 03:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.79%E -3.78%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 03:30
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.02%E -4.65%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:40
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.64%E -5.09%K -15.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 03:40
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.64%E -5.09%K -15.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 03:44
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.64%E -5.09%K -15.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 03:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -9.48%E -6.45%K -20.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 03:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.65%EV -10.10%E -6.92%K -21.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -13.55%E -6.02%K -10.84%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-17 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.