The School of Odds
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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 65.67%1.52fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -4.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.29%65.54%65.62%67.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.441.441.4972.99%69.39%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 34.33%2.91fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.46%34.46%34.38%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.732.8640.00%36.91%36.63%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 65.67%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 34.33%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.86, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -2.16%E -1.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -6.27%E -2.30%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-12 08:24
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -3.18%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 08:45
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 04:25
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 04:25
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 08:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -3.52%E -1.25%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -3.52%E -1.25%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 08:14
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -3.47%E -2.36%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -9.70%E -3.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:35
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.78%E -3.30%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 08:10
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.78%E -3.30%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 05:21
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -4.78%E -3.30%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -14.17%E -5.67%K -9.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 08:55
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.44%E -3.78%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.87%E -1.38%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 02:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.44%E -3.78%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 08:14
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.44%E -3.78%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 08:22
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.44%E -3.78%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.05%E -3.84%K -6.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 05:24
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -6.10%E -4.26%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -1.81%E -0.632%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 08:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.95%EV -6.10%E -4.26%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -4.90%E -1.77%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 08:20
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.10%E -4.26%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 08:14
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.10%E -4.26%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.30%E -2.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 04:44
ReBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.75%E -4.76%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 08:15
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.75%E -4.76%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.07%E -5.76%K -20.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-12 02:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.07%E -5.76%K -20.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-12 02:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.07%E -5.76%K -20.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-12 02:59
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.07%E -5.76%K -20.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.58%E -2.03%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-12 04:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.33%EV -9.38%E -6.80%K -24.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -10.73%E -4.13%K -6.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-12 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -10.04%E -7.33%K -27.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -2.15%E -0.755%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 06:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.60%EV -10.04%E -7.33%K -27.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.40%EV -14.17%E -5.67%K -9.45%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.