Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local)

Prediction 54.05%1.85fair odd

EV -1.63%

Edge -0.893%

Kelly -1.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.70%54.09%53.93%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.641.741.741.8260.98%57.49%57.47%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 45.95%2.18fair odd

EV -1.21%

Edge -0.563%

Kelly -1.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.01%45.91%46.07%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.922.042.042.1552.08%48.91%49.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (Local): 54.05%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 45.95%. For Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.45%EV -1.63%E -0.893%K -1.98%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 46.55%EV -3.97%E -1.90%K -3.64%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-07-14 03:50
LowVig.ag	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -2.17%E -1.20%K -2.67%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-14 03:55
BetOnline.ag	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -2.17%E -1.20%K -2.67%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-14 03:55
1xBet	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.61%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.38%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%EV -4.43%E -2.13%K -4.10%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-07-14 03:15
BetRivers	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:49
Unibet (SE)	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:49
PMU (FR)	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:50
LeoVegas (SE)	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:49
Unibet	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:50
Bally Bet	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.87%E -2.77%K -6.41%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.27%E -3.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-14 03:50
William Hill	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.59%E -1.22%K -2.31%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-14 01:44
FanDuel	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-14 02:20
Betsson	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-14 02:20
NordicBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-14 02:20
BetUS	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV -6.73%E -3.31%K -6.53%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-14 03:55
Tipico (DE)	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.41%E -3.09%K -7.21%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.40%E -5.33%K -10.95%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-07-14 01:10
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-14 03:55
MyBookie.ag	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -5.35%E -2.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-14 02:20
Hard Rock Bet	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.81%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-14 02:19
ReBet	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.81%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-14 03:55
theScore Bet	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.95%E -3.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.81%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-14 01:10
BoyleSports	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.81%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-14 02:19
888sport	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-14 03:55
888sport (SE)	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-14 03:54
Mr Green (SE)	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.49%E -3.75%K -8.89%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-14 03:55
BetMGM	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.66%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-13 23:49
Betway	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.66%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-14 02:19
Fanatics	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.57%E -4.43%K -10.66%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-14 03:55
Coral	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.11%E -4.77%K -11.59%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.81%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-13 23:50
Everygame	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.11%E -4.77%K -11.59%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-14 01:14
Caesars	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.65%E -5.12%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.21%E -0.563%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-13 13:40
Bovada	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.65%E -5.12%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -3.51%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-14 03:54
Unibet (FR)	1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -9.73%E -5.83%K -14.53%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.13%EV -10.40%E -5.33%K -10.95%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-07-14 03:55
Betclic (FR)	1.64I 60.98%NM 53.93%EV -11.36%E -6.92%K -17.74%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 46.07%EV -11.78%E -6.14%K -12.80%G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-07-14 03:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.