The School of Odds
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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)

Prediction 63.67%1.57fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +5.06%
Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%63.05%63.76%65.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.491.6270.42%67.28%67.11%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 36.33%2.75fair odd
EV +0.281%
Edge +0.102%
Kelly +0.159%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.95%36.24%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.562.602.7645.05%39.08%38.46%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +3.14%E +1.94%K +5.06%G +0.159%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -18.25%E -8.11%K -14.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 15:14
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -0.044%E -0.028%K -0.077%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -9.89%E -3.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 04:49
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.59%E -1.69%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -10.98%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 00:35
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -2.59%E -1.69%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -16.43%E -7.14%K -12.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-09 08:54
BetOnline.ag1.52I 65.79%NM 63.64%EV -3.23%E -2.12%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -3.35%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-09 08:39
LowVig.ag1.52I 65.79%NM 63.64%EV -3.23%E -2.12%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -3.35%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-09 08:35
Coolbet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.23%E -2.12%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 08:45
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -3.86%E -2.56%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -3.35%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-09 08:44
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 08:38
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 08:41
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
PMU (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
Bally Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:54
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.50%E -3.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -12.80%E -5.33%K -9.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-09 00:40
Pinnacle1.49I 67.11%NM 64.94%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.06%EV +0.281%E +0.102%K +0.159%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-09 08:55
BetUS1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -1.54%E -0.567%K -0.898%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 08:55
DraftKings1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.77%E -3.90%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.90%E -0.703%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 08:54
Fliff1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.77%E -3.90%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 08:35
FanDuel1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -6.41%E -4.36%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -1.17%E -0.431%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 08:40
MyBookie.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -6.41%E -4.36%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -4.44%E -1.69%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 08:44
ReBet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.41%E -4.36%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 08:39
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.41%E -4.36%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 08:35
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 60.16%EV -6.41%E -4.36%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.84%EV -19.34%E -8.71%K -15.85%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-09 08:30
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.68%E -5.30%K -17.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.72%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 08:34
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.68%E -5.30%K -17.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-09 08:35
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.68%E -5.30%K -17.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-09 08:39
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.32%E -5.78%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.81%E -1.83%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 08:54
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.32%E -5.78%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.81%E -1.83%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 08:54
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.32%E -5.78%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.81%E -1.83%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 08:54
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.32%E -5.78%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-09 08:33
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.32%E -5.78%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-09 08:34
Unibet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.96%E -6.26%K -20.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -9.17%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-09 08:45
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.59%E -6.76%K -22.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -3.72%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-09 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.