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Hiroshima Toyo Carp v Tokyo Yakult Swallows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local)
Prediction 51.58%1.94fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.87%51.47%51.59%53.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.821.8957.14%54.87%54.95%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)
Prediction 48.42%2.07fair odd
EV +0.703%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.651%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.11%48.53%48.41%50.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.941.932.0854.05%51.54%51.81%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Local): 51.58%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 48.42%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.703%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -8.18%E -4.59%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV +0.703%E +0.338%K +0.651%G +0.005% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -6.63%E -3.66%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -1.72%E -0.846%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -6.63%E -3.66%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -1.72%E -0.846%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -3.02%E -1.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV -2.69%E -1.34%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-10 04:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.60%E -3.06%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.17%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 04:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.17%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.17%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.17%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -3.02%E -1.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -4.14%E -2.09%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 04:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.11%E -2.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.60%E -3.06%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:13 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.73%E -5.56%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.59%E -2.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.12%E -3.36%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 04:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -6.63%E -3.66%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -6.56%E -3.40%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -2.50%E -1.33%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -7.04%E -3.67%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 04:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.53%E -3.94%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 04:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.53%E -3.94%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.01%E -4.22%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -9.21%E -5.23%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -8.98%E -4.78%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 04:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -3.02%E -1.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -9.46%E -5.06%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 04:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.54%E -1.89%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.46%E -5.06%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 09:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 04:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 04:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 04:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 04:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.