The School of Odds
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Hanshin Tigers v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanshin Tigers (Local)

Prediction 61.03%1.64fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.92%61.07%62.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.551.561.6268.49%64.58%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 38.97%2.57fair odd
EV -0.617%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.398%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%39.08%38.93%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.402.5544.44%41.55%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanshin Tigers (Local): 61.03%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 38.97%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.617%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.14%E -0.702%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 13:15
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.75%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.36%E -4.50%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-18 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.36%E -1.47%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.35%E -1.35%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-19 08:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.36%E -1.47%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.35%E -1.35%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-19 08:49
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.58%E -2.26%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 08:44
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.19%E -2.67%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.57%E -1.03%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-19 08:44
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -4.19%E -2.67%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -2.96%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 08:44
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.19%E -2.67%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-19 08:54
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.19%E -2.67%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-18 21:54
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -0.617%E -0.242%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-19 08:44
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%EV -3.73%E -1.51%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-19 08:39
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.51%E -1.84%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 08:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 08:54
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.41%E -3.49%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.51%E -1.84%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 08:40
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.41%E -3.49%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.51%E -1.84%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 08:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -5.41%E -3.49%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV -5.68%E -2.35%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 08:49
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -1.79%E -0.709%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 08:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.51%E -1.84%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 08:55
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.51%E -1.84%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 08:34
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 08:44
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 08:54
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 08:44
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 08:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 08:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.63%E -4.33%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 08:44
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.46%E -5.64%K -16.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-19 08:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -9.68%E -6.54%K -20.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -10.36%E -4.50%K -7.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-19 08:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -10.29%E -7.00%K -21.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -2.57%E -1.03%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-19 08:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.65%EV -10.90%E -7.47%K -23.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -12.31%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-19 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.