The School of Odds
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Hanshin Tigers v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanshin Tigers (Local)

Prediction 57.96%1.73fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.38%58.07%57.93%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.6764.52%61.62%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 42.04%2.38fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.518%
Kelly -0.901%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%41.93%42.07%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.3547.62%44.60%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanshin Tigers (Local): 57.96%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 42.04%. For Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 16:00
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -3.78%E -2.28%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -2.90%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-09 16:10
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.22%E -0.518%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.22%E -0.518%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.22%E -0.518%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 16:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 16:05
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 16:45
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.26%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.94%E -3.01%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.58%E -2.02%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 16:05
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.10%E -3.76%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 16:00
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.10%E -3.76%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 16:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.10%E -3.76%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.10%E -3.76%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 16:00
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 16:05
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:34
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.68%E -4.15%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 16:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.26%E -4.54%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 16:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -8.42%E -5.33%K -14.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:03
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -9.58%E -6.14%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 16:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.53%EV -10.16%E -6.55%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.