The School of Odds
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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local)

Prediction 63.88%1.57fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -4.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.66%64.04%63.87%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.481.5371.43%67.68%67.34%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 36.12%2.77fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.402%
Kelly +0.625%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%35.96%36.13%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.602.602.8040.82%38.46%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local): 63.88%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 36.12%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.65%E -6.05%K -20.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +1.13%E +0.402%K +0.625%G +0.007%5.6%2026-05-11 22:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.56%E -7.54%K -26.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.680%E -0.247%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 22:18
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.54%E -2.34%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.49%E -0.921%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-12 08:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.54%E -2.34%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.49%E -0.921%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-12 08:10
William Hill🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.49%E -0.921%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 07:08
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -10.56%E -7.54%K -26.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -2.49%E -0.921%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 06:24
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.21%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-12 08:15
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.17%E -2.78%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.29%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-12 08:15
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.29%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 13:07
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.26%E -1.48%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -4.65%E -1.76%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 08:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.38%E -2.05%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 06:44
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.38%E -2.05%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 06:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.38%E -2.05%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 06:44
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.26%E -1.48%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-12 08:45
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.17%E -2.78%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 08:14
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.17%E -2.78%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 08:55
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.17%E -2.78%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.17%E -2.78%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 08:09
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 08:20
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.09%E -4.14%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-12 06:54
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.26%E -1.48%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -6.82%E -2.64%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-12 08:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 08:15
ReBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 08:14
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-12 08:09
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:54
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.81%E -3.23%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 08:55
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.45%E -3.68%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.71%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 08:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -8.65%E -6.05%K -20.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -11.52%E -4.70%K -7.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-12 08:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.