The School of Odds
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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks v Saitama Seibu Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local)

Prediction 65.90%1.52fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.51%65.84%65.87%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.431.4972.99%69.99%69.93%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit)

Prediction 34.10%2.93fair odd
EV -0.425%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.221%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.16%34.13%35.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.492.752.752.9240.16%36.42%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Local): 65.90%; Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit): 34.10%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -0.425%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -1.81%E -1.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -4.86%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 08:45
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -5.54%E -2.00%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 08:30
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 08:50
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 08:50
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 08:50
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:45
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 08:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:50
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.66%E -4.07%K -6.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -0.425%E -0.145%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 08:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -0.425%E -0.145%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 08:30
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -3.15%E -1.11%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:50
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 08:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:25
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 08:50
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:30
ReBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 08:50
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 08:50
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.42%E -4.52%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 08:55
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.42%E -4.52%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 14:39
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:49
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 14:35
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 08:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -8.40%E -6.04%K -21.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -13.04%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 08:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.51%EV -9.72%E -7.09%K -26.27%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 35.49%EV -15.09%E -6.06%K -10.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.