The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 61.28%1.63fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -4.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%61.33%61.04%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.531.531.5968.97%65.15%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 38.72%2.58fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%38.67%38.96%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.442.432.6544.05%41.01%41.15%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 61.28%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 38.72%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +2.61%E +0.986%K +1.58%G +0.041%3.1%2026-08-21 08:54
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.08%E -5.39%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +2.61%E +0.986%K +1.58%G +0.041%4.4%2026-08-21 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -5.63%E -3.66%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV +1.06%E +0.408%K +0.661%G +0.007%3.2%2026-08-21 08:45
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -1.65%E -0.648%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 08:44
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -6.86%E -4.51%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -1.65%E -0.648%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 08:40
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 08:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -9.92%E -6.75%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 08:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.57%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.58%E -1.44%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-21 08:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.86%E -4.51%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -3.97%E -1.60%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 08:44
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.79%E -2.42%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.13%E -2.09%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-21 08:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.13%E -2.09%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 08:34
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.47%E -4.95%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.13%E -2.09%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 08:40
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.39%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.13%E -2.09%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-21 08:40
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:55
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.02%E -3.24%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.91%E -2.43%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 08:54
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.18%E -2.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 08:54
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.18%E -2.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 08:35
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.18%E -2.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 08:54
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.63%E -3.66%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-20 21:14
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.08%E -5.39%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 08:34
Fanatics🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.70%E -5.84%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 08:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.84%E -3.30%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 08:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.84%E -3.30%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 08:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.84%E -3.30%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 08:34
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -8.23%E -3.47%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:13
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.52%EV -9.92%E -6.75%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -9.00%E -3.83%K -6.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-21 08:50
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.57%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 12:59
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.57%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 07:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.02%EV -11.15%E -7.69%K -24.77%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.98%EV -12.10%E -5.33%K -9.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-21 08:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.