The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 62.08%1.61fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.50%62.12%62.13%63.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.521.501.5968.49%65.93%66.45%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.607%
Kelly +0.968%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%37.88%37.87%39.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.262.492.502.6844.25%40.16%40.00%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 62.08%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 37.92%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV +1.63%E +0.607%K +0.968%G +0.016%3.1%2026-08-22 04:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -5.64%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV +1.63%E +0.607%K +0.968%G +0.016%3.1%2026-08-22 04:55
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.16%E -2.02%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 03:55
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 00:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -3.30%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 04:04
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.44%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 04:05
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.44%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 04:29
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -1.91%E -1.21%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -4.82%E -1.92%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-22 04:05
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.16%E -2.02%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 04:35
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 03:59
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:25
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:23
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:24
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.12%E -5.49%K -16.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 00:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.74%E -5.95%K -18.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 04:00
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -1.29%E -0.813%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -6.72%E -2.73%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 04:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -6.72%E -2.73%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 04:04
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.78%E -2.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 04:50
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.78%E -2.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 04:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 03:59
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.26%E -4.15%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 04:05
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 04:00
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -1.91%E -1.21%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -8.23%E -3.40%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 04:40
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.40%E -2.86%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 03:57
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.02%E -3.28%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 04:00
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.88%E -4.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.99%E -3.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 03:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -8.12%E -5.49%K -16.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -12.78%E -5.56%K -9.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 04:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.75%EV -9.36%E -6.41%K -20.36%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 39.25%EV -14.30%E -6.33%K -11.35%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.