The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 04:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 55.78%1.79fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.75%55.92%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.691.691.7561.35%59.18%59.17%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 44.22%2.26fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.745%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%44.25%44.08%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.132.142.3051.81%47.00%46.73%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 55.78%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 44.22%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.71%E +0.745%K +1.32%G +0.023%3.4%2026-05-17 04:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.71%E +0.745%K +1.32%G +0.023%3.4%2026-05-17 04:15
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.62%E -2.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -0.497%E -0.221%K -0.398%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 04:20
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -4.62%E -2.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -2.27%E -1.03%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 04:19
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.62%E -2.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.71%E -1.23%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 04:10
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.74%E -3.40%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.71%E -1.23%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 04:25
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.18%E -3.05%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.03%E -1.86%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 04:15
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.18%E -3.05%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.92%E -2.29%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 04:15
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.18%E -3.05%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.92%E -2.29%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 04:15
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.74%E -3.40%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.92%E -2.29%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 18:36
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.92%E -2.29%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 04:15
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:35
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:35
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.41%E -4.46%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -5.36%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:30
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -2.39%E -1.37%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -6.25%E -2.95%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 03:45
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.06%E -2.36%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.25%E -2.95%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 03:40
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.62%E -2.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -6.69%E -3.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 04:20
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 04:10
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.85%E -4.10%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 18:40
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 04:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -3.51%E -2.03%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -8.46%E -4.09%K -7.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 03:44
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.95%E -1.69%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 03:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.95%E -1.69%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 03:40
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.51%E -2.03%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 03:40
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.62%E -2.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 03:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.18%E -3.05%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 03:40
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -5.74%E -3.40%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -9.34%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 03:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.21%EV -9.08%E -5.57%K -14.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.79%EV -14.65%E -7.59%K -15.75%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-17 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.