The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 04:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 59.32%1.69fair odd
EV -0.343%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.36%59.24%59.43%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.601.601.6866.23%62.45%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 40.68%2.46fair odd
EV -0.333%
Edge -0.136%
Kelly -0.230%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.76%40.57%43.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.282.302.4546.95%43.78%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 59.32%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 40.68%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.333%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:20
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:19
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:19
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -0.343%E -0.204%K -0.504%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -11.72%E -5.40%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 04:20
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -2.72%E -1.66%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 04:00
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -1.96%E -0.813%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 04:15
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 03:59
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 04:10
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 12:38
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.90%E -2.41%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 23:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.333%E -0.136%K -0.230%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-23 04:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.333%E -0.136%K -0.230%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-23 04:24
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.50%E -2.79%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.21%E -2.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 04:20
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -3.99%E -1.69%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 04:09
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 04:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -6.03%E -2.61%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 04:10
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.09%E -3.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 23:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 04:04
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.68%E -3.57%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 04:05
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.333%E -0.136%K -0.230%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 04:24
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 04:09
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 04:05
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 04:05
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 04:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 04:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.87%E -4.37%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.47%E -3.76%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 04:15
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -7.46%E -4.78%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 04:25
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.46%E -4.78%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -8.65%E -5.62%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.50%E -4.77%K -8.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 04:19
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.24%E -6.04%K -17.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -6.44%E -2.80%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 04:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.83%E -6.47%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.40%E -1.87%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 04:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.52%EV -10.43%E -6.91%K -20.45%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.48%EV -13.35%E -6.27%K -11.81%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-23 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.