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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chunichi Dragons (Local)
Prediction 62.56%1.60fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.10%62.41%62.81%65.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.521.531.5669.93%65.94%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)
Prediction 37.44%2.67fair odd
EV +3.71%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.98%37.59%37.19%39.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.492.502.7743.10%40.09%40.00%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 62.56%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 37.44%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -6.79%E -4.56%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +3.71%E +1.34%K +2.10%G +0.078% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -6.79%E -4.56%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.65%EV +0.717%E +0.266%K +0.424%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 08:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.781%E -0.295%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 08:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.781%E -0.295%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 08:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -6.79%E -4.56%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -0.781%E -0.295%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -9.29%E -6.41%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -0.781%E -0.295%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.65%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 08:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.91%E -3.23%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.65%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.91%E -3.23%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.65%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 08:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.16%E -4.11%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.65%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.40%E -1.32%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -3.03%E -1.96%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -4.90%E -1.93%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 08:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.16%E -4.11%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 08:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.16%E -4.11%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 08:48 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.16%E -4.11%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.79%E -4.56%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.41%E -5.01%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 08:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.41%E -5.01%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.04%E -5.47%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -6.40%E -2.56%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -4.91%E -3.23%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -6.77%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 08:53 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -3.03%E -1.96%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -7.52%E -3.04%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 08:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.66%E -2.38%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.14%E -4.23%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 00:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -9.29%E -6.41%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.14%E -4.23%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 08:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.89%E -4.58%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -4.28%E -2.80%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -11.26%E -4.75%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 00:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.41%E -1.54%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -12.01%E -5.11%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 08:33 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.87%EV -10.54%E -7.37%K -24.51%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.13%EV -13.14%E -5.66%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-04 08:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.