The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 09:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 57.91%1.73fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.61%58.02%57.84%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.631.7064.52%61.45%61.35%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit)

Prediction 42.09%2.38fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%41.98%42.16%44.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.232.252.3048.54%44.88%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 57.91%; Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Visit): 42.09%. For Chunichi Dragons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -1.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -1.56%E -0.918%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -10.34%E -4.85%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -2.14%E -1.27%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -4.45%E -1.96%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-02 08:45
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -2.72%E -1.62%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -4.45%E -1.96%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-02 08:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.30%E -1.97%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.18%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-02 02:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.30%E -1.97%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.18%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-02 02:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.46%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 08:44
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.46%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 08:45
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.46%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 08:50
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.46%E -2.70%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 08:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.03%E -3.07%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -6.55%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 08:49
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.03%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.61%E -3.44%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 08:40
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.18%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.18%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 08:45
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 14:53
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 08:40
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 08:40
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 08:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.19%E -3.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 08:40
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.77%E -4.21%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 08:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.77%E -4.21%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.77%E -4.21%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 08:55
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.77%E -4.21%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 08:40
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.77%E -4.21%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 08:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.07%EV -8.51%E -5.39%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.60%E -5.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-02 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.09%E -5.79%K -15.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 08:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.25%E -6.61%K -18.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.18%E -1.38%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 08:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.06%EV -10.25%E -6.61%K -18.63%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -13.29%E -6.45%K -12.53%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 08:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.