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Chiba Lotte Marines v Orix Buffaloes

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 52.12%1.92fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.87%52.31%52.00%53.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.8858.82%55.69%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orix Buffaloes (Visit)

Prediction 47.88%2.09fair odd
EV -0.417%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.386%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.09%47.69%48.00%50.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.971.962.0854.35%50.81%51.02%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 52.12%; Orix Buffaloes (Visit): 47.88%. For Orix Buffaloes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.08, with an expected value of -0.417%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -2.01%E -1.07%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-10 08:45
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -2.01%E -1.07%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -5.20%E -2.63%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-10 08:45
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -2.01%E -1.07%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -10.47%E -5.60%K -12.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 08:25
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.61%E -2.52%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 08:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.61%E -2.52%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 22:00
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.14%E -2.82%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 08:40
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.14%E -2.82%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 08:40
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.14%E -2.82%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 08:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.66%E -3.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.68%E -2.88%K -5.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:43
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.85%E -0.904%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.85%E -0.904%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 16:05
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 08:39
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 08:40
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 08:39
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 08:40
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.64%E -3.41%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 08:54
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.56%E -4.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 08:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.56%E -4.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 08:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.56%E -4.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 08:50
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.56%E -4.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 08:40
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.56%E -4.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-09 22:03
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.18%E -3.43%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -9.03%E -4.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 08:40
William Hill🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -7.22%E -4.06%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -0.417%E -0.200%K -0.386%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 06:19
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:55
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:55
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.74%E -4.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.29%E -1.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 08:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.78%E -5.02%K -11.71%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -9.03%E -4.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-10 08:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -10.35%E -6.02%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 08:29
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -10.87%E -6.36%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -4.25%E -2.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-10 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.98%EV -11.39%E -6.70%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.02%EV -11.91%E -6.47%K -14.18%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-10 08:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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