Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-07-20 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Local)

Prediction 45.91%2.18fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.839%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%45.87%45.91%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.2052.36%48.89%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 54.09%1.85fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.38%54.13%54.09%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.741.741.8060.61%57.36%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chiba Lotte Marines (Local): 45.91%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 54.09%. For Chiba Lotte Marines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +1.01%E +0.458%K +0.839%G +0.008%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -7.51%E -4.39%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-20 07:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +1.01%E +0.458%K +0.839%G +0.008%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -7.51%E -4.39%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-20 07:55
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -0.829%E -0.384%K -0.715%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -4.81%E -2.73%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-20 07:55
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -0.829%E -0.384%K -0.715%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-20 07:55
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-20 07:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 07:45
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.59%E -5.08%K -12.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 07:54
William Hill🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.50%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 23:25
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.50%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.81%E -2.73%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-20 07:50
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 07:50
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 07:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-20 07:54
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-20 07:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-20 07:50
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-20 07:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-20 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.05%E -4.74%K -11.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-20 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.26%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 07:30
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.68%EV -7.72%E -3.84%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.32%EV -4.81%E -2.73%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-20 07:55
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 23:05
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.51%E -4.39%K -10.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 07:50
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.51%E -4.39%K -10.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-20 07:54
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -9.09%E -4.59%K -9.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-19 23:20
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-19 23:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -9.13%E -5.44%K -13.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-20 07:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -12.31%E -6.44%K -13.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.65%EV -10.76%E -6.52%K -16.55%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-20 07:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.