The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Virginia Cavaliers v California Golden Bears

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 68.85%1.45fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -13.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.29%68.98%68.81%70.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.3875.19%73.53%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

California Golden Bears (Visit)

Prediction 31.15%3.21fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.597%
Kelly -0.874%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%31.02%31.19%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.013.003.1533.90%33.28%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 68.85%; California Golden Bears (Visit): 31.15%. For California Golden Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.99%E -3.61%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 11:31
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.99%E -3.61%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 17:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.67%E -4.14%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -5.93%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 13:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.67%E -4.14%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -5.93%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 13:39
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.67%E -4.14%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 04:54
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.67%E -4.14%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.95%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.05%EV -5.93%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:09
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 05:35
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 05:49
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 06:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 06:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 06:04
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.36%E -4.68%K -17.67%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -7.18%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 18:04
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.05%E -5.22%K -20.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:04
Bally Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.05%E -5.22%K -20.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:04
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.05%E -5.22%K -20.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:04
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -7.74%E -5.78%K -22.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.88%E -0.597%K -0.874%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:04
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 16:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%5.2%2026-05-09 19:24