Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Pittsburgh Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 80.84%1.24fair odd

EV -1.37%

Edge -1.12%

Kelly -6.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.00%80.65%81.04%82.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.161.171.2289.29%85.90%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 19.16%5.22fair odd

EV +1.53%

Edge +0.289%

Kelly +0.356%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.58%19.35%18.96%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.054.865.005.3024.69%20.58%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 80.84%; Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit): 19.16%. For Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -7.03%E -6.11%K -46.87%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV +1.53%E +0.289%K +0.356%G +0.005%	5.8%	2026-05-08 17:44
BetRivers🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -9.46%E -8.44%K -78.80%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV +0.573%E +0.109%K +0.135%G +0.001%	8.3%	2026-05-08 16:43
betPARX🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -9.46%E -8.44%K -78.80%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV +0.573%E +0.109%K +0.135%G +0.001%	8.3%	2026-05-08 16:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -9.46%E -8.44%K -78.80%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV +0.573%E +0.109%K +0.135%G +0.001%	8.3%	2026-05-08 16:45
1xBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.82%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -55.99%G +0.000%	5.13I 19.49%NM 18.18%EV -1.73%E -0.336%K -0.418%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-08 21:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.41%E -4.63%K -31.84%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-08 16:44
888sport🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.41%E -4.63%K -31.84%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-08 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.41%E -4.63%K -31.84%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-08 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.41%E -4.63%K -31.84%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-08 18:15
BetMGM🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.22%E -5.36%K -38.89%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-08 16:43
theScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -55.99%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.22%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-08 16:19
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.03%E -6.11%K -46.87%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.13%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-08 21:53
Caesars🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.99%E -2.49%K -14.94%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -9.01%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-08 20:19
Bovada🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.41%E -4.63%K -31.84%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -9.01%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-08 16:44
Betway🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -55.99%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -9.01%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-08 19:39
DraftKings🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.60%E -3.90%K -25.58%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -9.96%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-08 15:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.20%EV -1.37%E -1.12%K -6.23%G +0.000%	4.13I 24.21%NM 22.80%EV -20.88%E -5.06%K -6.67%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-08 21:24
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.20%EV -1.37%E -1.12%K -6.23%G +0.000%	4.13I 24.21%NM 22.80%EV -20.88%E -5.06%K -6.67%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-08 21:24
BetUS🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.00%EV -2.18%E -1.80%K -10.38%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -22.42%E -5.53%K -7.35%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-08 16:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.