The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 58.86%1.70fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%58.93%58.79%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.631.621.6762.89%61.39%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.903%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.07%41.21%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.322.332.4044.44%43.16%42.92%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 58.86%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 41.14%. For Boston Red Sox (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.70%E -1.02%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 13:25
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.88%E -1.75%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 12:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.88%E -1.75%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -3.73%E -1.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 12:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.88%E -1.75%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -3.73%E -1.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 12:30
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.88%E -1.75%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 12:24
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.47%E -2.12%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -4.14%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-20 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.47%E -2.12%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.20%E -2.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 14:00
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.47%E -2.12%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -6.20%E -2.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 14:09
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.65%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 13:25
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.65%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 13:38
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.65%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.56%E -1.96%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 13:24
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.65%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-20 13:25
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.50%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 16:58
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.14%E -1.78%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 14:38
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.26%E -0.527%K -0.903%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-20 17:00
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.41%E -4.03%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-03-20 17:00
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-03-20 16:55
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%2.8%2026-03-20 17:00