The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v Chicago Cubs

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 59.99%1.67fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%60.11%59.85%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.591.591.6164.10%62.94%62.89%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV +0.030%
Edge +0.012%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%39.89%40.15%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5043.48%41.61%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 59.99%; Chicago Cubs (Visit): 40.01%. For Chicago Cubs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.499. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.030%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV +0.030%E +0.012%K +0.020%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-21 23:10
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.42%E -4.11%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +0.030%E +0.012%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 22:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.370%E -0.148%K -0.248%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 23:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.370%E -0.148%K -0.248%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 23:39
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.97%E -0.804%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 23:09
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.97%E -0.804%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 22:54
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.97%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 01:04
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.97%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-21 22:24
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.02%E -2.51%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.97%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 01:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.97%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 23:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.22%E -3.30%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.97%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 23:18
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -4.77%E -2.00%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 23:30
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 23:30
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 22:54
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 22:54
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.42%E -4.11%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 00:55
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.62%E -2.91%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.97%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 23:30
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.82%E -3.71%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.97%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-03-22 01:04
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-03-22 01:05
Novig◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%4.4%2026-03-22 00:34