The School of Odds
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San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 59.81%1.67fair odd
EV -0.121%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.180%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%59.90%59.67%62.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6765.36%62.50%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 40.19%2.49fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.68%40.10%40.33%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.352.5745.45%41.88%42.55%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Padres (Local): 59.81%; Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit): 40.19%. For Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV +3.29%E +1.28%K +2.10%G +0.069%3.0%2026-03-23 00:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV +3.29%E +1.28%K +2.10%G +0.069%3.0%2026-03-23 00:54
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +2.49%E +0.976%K +1.61%G +0.040%3.3%2026-03-23 00:54
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -7.90%E -5.13%K -14.62%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV +2.09%E +0.822%K +1.36%G +0.028%4.3%2026-03-23 00:02
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -8.49%E -5.55%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV +1.69%E +0.666%K +1.10%G +0.019%4.9%2026-03-23 01:00
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +0.480%E +0.192%K +0.320%G +0.002%4.1%2026-03-23 00:59
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.31%E -2.69%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.54%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 22:40
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.91%E -3.09%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.54%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-23 01:04
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.71%E -2.30%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.55%E -2.36%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-23 00:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.71%E -2.30%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.95%E -2.54%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 00:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.121%E -0.072%K -0.180%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -7.56%E -3.29%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 20:09
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.32%E -0.798%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.36%E -3.67%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 23:04
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -1.32%E -0.798%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -8.36%E -3.67%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -2.51%E -1.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -8.36%E -3.67%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 20:09
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -0.121%E -0.072%K -0.180%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -9.57%E -4.25%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 19:50
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -4.91%E -3.09%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.57%E -4.25%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 22:15
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.11%E -1.92%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -11.58%E -5.26%K -9.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-23 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.8%2026-03-23 00:55
Novig◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%3.3%2026-03-23 00:29