The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 60.44%1.65fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%60.51%60.45%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.581.581.6264.10%63.31%63.49%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visit)

Prediction 39.56%2.53fair odd
EV +0.882%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.569%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%39.49%39.55%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5543.48%41.56%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 60.44%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visit): 39.56%. For Toronto Blue Jays (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.882%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.882%E +0.346%K +0.569%G +0.005%3.3%2026-03-12 16:14
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.10%E -0.439%K -0.731%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-12 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.49%E -0.599%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-12 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.07%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.07%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 16:15
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 16:09
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.30%E -2.06%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -4.26%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.26%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.09%E -1.29%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:00
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.30%E -2.06%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 16:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 16:14
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 16:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.51%E -2.85%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 16:20
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.03%E -2.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 16:15
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.03%E -2.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 16:15
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 16:15
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%3.1%2026-03-12 16:50
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%3.4%2026-03-12 16:55
Novig◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%8.8%2026-03-12 17:00