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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays

开赛时间： 2026-03-12 17:05 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

18 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Philadelphia Phillies (主队)

预测 60.44%1.65公平赔率
EV -2.09%
优势 -1.29%
Kelly -3.37%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.62

博彩公司预测分布
59.43%60.51%60.45%62.04%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.561.581.581.6264.10%63.31%63.49%61.73%最小值均值中位数最大值

Toronto Blue Jays (客队)

预测 39.56%2.53公平赔率
EV +0.882%
优势 +0.346%
Kelly +0.569%
增长率 +0.005%

假设最高赔率为 2.55

博彩公司预测分布
37.96%39.49%39.55%40.57%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.302.412.402.5543.48%41.56%41.67%39.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Philadelphia Phillies (主队)：60.44%；Toronto Blue Jays (客队)：39.56%。 对于“Toronto Blue Jays (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.53。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.55，对应+0.882%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (18 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼利润率更新时间
BetMGM🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.882%E +0.346%K +0.569%G +0.005%3.3%2026-03-12 16:14
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.10%E -0.439%K -0.731%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-12 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.49%E -0.599%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-12 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.07%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.07%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 16:15
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 16:09
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.30%E -2.06%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -4.26%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.26%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.09%E -1.29%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:00
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.30%E -2.06%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 16:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 16:14
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.90%E -2.45%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 16:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.51%E -2.85%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 16:20
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.03%E -2.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 16:15
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.03%E -2.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 16:15
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.11%E -3.26%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 16:15
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.72%E -3.66%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:00
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%3.1%2026-03-12 16:50
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%3.4%2026-03-12 16:55
Novig◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%8.8%2026-03-12 17:00