The School of Odds
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Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 62.81%1.59fair odd
EV +1.75%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +2.83%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.40%62.42%62.82%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.521.521.6266.67%65.59%65.79%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 37.19%2.69fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.547%
Kelly -0.878%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%37.58%37.18%40.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.562.602.6542.19%39.08%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 62.81%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 37.19%. For Philadelphia Phillies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV +1.75%E +1.08%K +2.83%G +0.050%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -11.86%E -5.00%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.27%E -2.12%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-23 15:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.27%E -2.12%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-23 15:54
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.27%E -2.12%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-23 15:54
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -3.27%E -2.12%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -6.28%E -2.49%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-23 15:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.90%E -2.55%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 15:55
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.90%E -2.55%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-23 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.53%E -2.98%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-23 15:54
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -4.53%E -2.98%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -4.80%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 15:54
Caesars🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.16%E -3.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -2.56%E -0.979%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-23 15:55
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.16%E -3.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-23 15:54
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.16%E -3.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-23 15:55
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -5.16%E -3.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.89%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-23 15:54
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.78%E -3.86%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -1.45%E -0.547%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-23 15:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -5.78%E -3.86%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 15:58
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.78%E -3.86%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-23 15:55
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.78%E -3.86%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-23 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-03-23 16:00
Novig◎1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%4.3%2026-03-23 15:54
ProphetX◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%4.6%2026-03-23 16:00