The School of Odds
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Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Braves (Local)

Prediction 58.96%1.70fair odd
EV +3.18%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +4.23%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.55%58.41%59.13%59.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.641.631.7562.89%60.91%61.54%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 41.04%2.44fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.60%41.59%40.87%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.332.3747.62%43.69%43.01%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Braves (Local): 58.96%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 41.04%. For Atlanta Braves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +3.18%E +1.81%K +4.23%G +0.134%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -13.81%E -6.58%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +3.18%E +1.81%K +4.23%G +0.134%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -13.81%E -6.58%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-11 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-11 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-11 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -7.24%E -3.21%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-11 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.65%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 15:35
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.72%E -1.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.65%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.90%E -2.39%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.60%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 15:09
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -2.73%E -1.15%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-11 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.14%E -1.33%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 16:50
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.14%E -1.33%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 15:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 15:05
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:53
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.55%E -1.51%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 16:55
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.49%E -2.77%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-11 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.26%E -3.94%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.60%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 15:05
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.26%E -3.94%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.65%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%2.1%2026-03-11 16:30
ProphetX◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%3.0%2026-03-11 16:25
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%3.0%2026-03-11 17:00