The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlanta Braves v Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Braves (Local)

Prediction 57.87%1.73fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.956%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.74%57.82%58.12%58.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.661.651.7062.11%60.38%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 42.13%2.37fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.12%42.18%41.88%43.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.262.262.3245.45%44.19%44.15%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Braves (Local): 57.87%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit): 42.13%. For Atlanta Braves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -1.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -1.63%E -0.956%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-20 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -1.63%E -0.956%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-20 21:00
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -2.20%E -1.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -5.62%E -2.51%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-20 21:40
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -2.20%E -1.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -6.46%E -2.91%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-20 20:42
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.36%E -2.01%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.09%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 19:30
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.36%E -2.01%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.09%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 20:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -3.36%E -2.01%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -6.89%E -3.12%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:44
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.09%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 22:00
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.09%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 21:34
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 19:45
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 19:45
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:15
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -6.26%E -3.86%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.25%E -0.971%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 19:30
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.26%E -3.86%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.09%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-20 19:30
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 21:10
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-03-20 21:50
Novig◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%2.8%2026-03-20 22:00
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%3.5%2026-03-20 21:45