La escuela de los momios

Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays

2026-07-28 22:46 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 56.13%1.78momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -2.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%56.13%56.16%56.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.97%58.82%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 43.87%2.28momio equitativo
EV -2.17%
Ventaja -0.973%
Kelly -1.76%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%43.87%43.84%45.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.172.172.2348.78%46.17%46.08%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV -2.17%E -0.973%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-27 18:30
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.61%E -1.18%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-27 18:35
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -3.05%E -1.38%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-27 18:30
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -3.05%E -1.38%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-27 18:30
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 19:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 19:55
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 19:55
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 18:30
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 18:35
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 21:15
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-27 18:29
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-27 20:10
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-27 19:55
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 18:10
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -3.93%E -1.79%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 19:00
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 18:25
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 18:30
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 18:30
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:30
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 20:29
Betsson1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.24%E -2.43%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-27 20:04
NordicBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.24%E -2.43%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-27 20:05
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 17:50
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 18:10
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 18:30
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 18:25
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:10
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:30
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:30
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:30
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 18:20
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 17:45
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 18:29
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.68%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 18:25
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.39%E -4.48%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 18:30
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -8.51%E -5.22%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 18:30
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -9.07%E -5.60%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-27 18:35
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-27 21:00
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.5%2026-07-27 19:48
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%9.9%2026-07-27 18:30