The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St. Louis Cardinals v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 00:16 UTC

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 5–4 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 49.47%2.02fair odd
EV -0.565%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.559%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.75%49.37%49.47%50.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.921.922.0154.95%52.01%52.08%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 50.53%1.98fair odd
EV +0.049%
Edge +0.025%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%50.63%50.53%52.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.881.9855.56%53.22%53.19%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Louis Cardinals (Local): 49.47%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 50.53%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.979. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.980, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.049%.

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -4.03%E -2.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV +0.049%E +0.025%K +0.050%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-15 19:05
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -1.97%E -1.02%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-15 21:40
BetAnything🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.48%E -1.28%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-15 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -2.98%E -1.55%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 19:05
ReBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-15 21:50
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 23:40
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 19:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 19:55
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 22:05
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 12:20
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.49%E -1.83%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.565%E -0.281%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-16 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.565%E -0.281%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-16 00:10
GTbets🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.565%E -0.281%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-16 00:10
Everygame🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.565%E -0.281%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-15 23:50
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.565%E -0.281%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-16 00:09
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.03%E -2.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 00:15
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 20:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -4.50%E -2.38%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 00:15
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.52%E -2.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.50%E -2.38%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 21:38
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.50%E -2.38%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.50%E -2.38%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:50
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.52%E -2.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:35
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.52%E -2.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.52%E -2.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:35
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 00:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 21:40
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 00:15
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 23:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 00:05
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.03%E -2.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.03%E -2.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 23:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 00:15
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 00:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 00:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 00:15
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -5.02%E -2.61%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 00:15
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 00:15
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 00:09
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.49%E -4.01%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -6.01%E -3.23%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 00:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:50
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 00:01
DraftKings🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 00:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -6.50%E -3.44%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 00:15
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -6.50%E -3.44%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 00:15
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 00:15
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -6.52%E -3.52%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 00:15
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.51%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.53%E -4.11%K -9.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 00:15
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -7.53%E -4.11%K -9.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.45%EV -8.48%E -4.58%K -9.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.55%EV -8.54%E -4.72%K -10.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 00:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -2.54%E -1.29%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 00:15
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.53%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 00:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -9.96%E -5.47%K -12.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.28%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-05-16 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-05-16 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-05-16 00:05
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%0.8%2026-05-16 00:15
ProphetX◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%0.8%2026-05-15 23:50
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-05-15 20:45
BetOpenly◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-05-16 00:10
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-05-16 00:10
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.22%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.78%3.7%2026-05-16 00:15
Matchbook◎1.79I 55.87%NM 49.58%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.42%12.7%2026-05-16 00:15