Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs

2026-07-29 23:46 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (17 en el análisis )

48%

52%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Predicción 47.96%2.09momio equitativo

EV -1.69%

Ventaja -0.822%

Kelly -1.61%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

47.40%48.06%48.00%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.881.982.002.0553.19%50.43%50.00%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 52.04%1.92momio equitativo

EV -1.12%

Ventaja -0.590%

Kelly -1.24%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

50.00%51.94%52.00%52.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.741.841.831.9057.47%54.47%54.64%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
GTbets	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.69%E -0.822%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.68%E -1.43%K -3.08%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-28 23:24
BetUS	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.69%E -0.822%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.68%E -1.43%K -3.08%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-29 00:24
BetOnline.ag	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.17%E -1.06%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.68%E -1.43%K -3.08%G +0.000%	2.5%	2026-07-28 22:05
LowVig.ag	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.17%E -1.06%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.68%E -1.43%K -3.08%G +0.000%	2.5%	2026-07-28 22:04
1xBet	2.03I 49.26%NM 48.21%EV -2.65%E -1.30%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.79%EV -1.64%E -0.868%K -1.84%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-07-29 02:04
Pinnacle	2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.65%E -1.30%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -2.16%E -1.15%K -2.46%G +0.000%	2.5%	2026-07-29 02:04
Unibet (NL)	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 01:00
Unibet (SE)	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 01:00
Casumo	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 01:00
LeoVegas (SE)	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
BetRivers	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
Unibet	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
ATG (SE)	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
betPARX	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
Svenska Spel	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 00:59
Bally Bet	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.12%E -1.55%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-29 01:00
MyBookie.ag	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-28 22:29
Coral	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-29 01:19
Ladbrokes (UK)	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-29 01:19
PointsBet (AU)	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-28 22:14
Fliff	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-29 02:04
theScore Bet	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-28 22:39
Caesars	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-28 22:10
DraftKings	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-28 22:20
Betway	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-28 23:54
Virgin Bet	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.80%E -3.21%K -7.17%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-29 00:59
LiveScore Bet	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.80%E -3.21%K -7.17%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-29 00:59
TABtouch	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.08%E -2.04%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.80%E -3.21%K -7.17%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-29 00:59
BetMGM	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.04%E -2.55%K -5.15%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-29 01:19
Unibet (UK)	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -5.04%E -2.55%K -5.15%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.24%E -2.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-28 22:24
PlayUp	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.04%E -2.55%K -5.15%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-28 23:20
Bet Right	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.52%E -2.80%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-28 22:29
Betr (AU)	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -5.52%E -2.80%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.24%E -2.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-28 22:29
Marathon Bet	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.52%E -2.80%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-29 01:59
Tipico (DE)	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -5.52%E -2.80%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.32%E -3.51%K -7.91%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-28 21:30
FanDuel	1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -6.00%E -3.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -1.64%E -0.868%K -1.84%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-28 19:34
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.00%E -3.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-29 01:19
Neds	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.00%E -3.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-29 01:19
Winamax (DE)	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -6.00%E -3.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-28 22:24
Betclic (FR)	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -6.00%E -3.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.28%E -2.90%K -6.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-28 23:13
Hard Rock Bet	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.48%E -3.32%K -6.82%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.68%E -1.43%K -3.08%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-28 22:45
ReBet	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.48%E -3.32%K -6.82%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.76%E -2.60%K -5.74%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-28 23:49
Bet Victor	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.48%E -3.32%K -6.82%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.32%E -3.51%K -7.91%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-28 22:23
Bovada	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -6.96%E -3.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -2.16%E -1.15%K -2.46%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-28 21:39
Grosvenor	1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -6.96%E -3.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -8.41%E -4.78%K -11.06%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-07-29 01:00
SportsBet	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -7.92%E -4.13%K -8.61%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -2.16%E -1.15%K -2.46%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-28 19:34
888sport	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.40%E -4.40%K -9.23%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-28 19:44
Mr Green (SE)	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.40%E -4.40%K -9.23%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-28 19:44
888sport (SE)	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.40%E -4.40%K -9.23%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -3.72%E -2.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-28 19:44
Paddy Power	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.88%E -4.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.12%E -0.590%K -1.24%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-28 19:35
Unibet (FR)	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%EV -8.88%E -4.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -7.89%E -4.46%K -10.24%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-07-28 23:49
Winamax (FR)	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.07%EV -9.84%E -5.23%K -11.18%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 51.93%EV -9.45%E -5.43%K -12.77%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-28 22:24

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%	1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%	1.0%	2026-07-28 19:35
Polymarket	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%	1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%	1.1%	2026-07-29 01:54
Novig	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85%	1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15%	1.5%	2026-07-29 01:55
ProphetX	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%	1.9%	2026-07-29 02:05
Matchbook	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%	4.9%	2026-07-29 02:00
Smarkets	1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%	8.2%	2026-07-29 02:10