La escuela de los momios

Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays

Inicio: 2026-07-04 20:11 UTC

Final: Seattle Mariners 11–0 Toronto Blue Jays

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Predicción 59.48%1.68momio equitativo
EV -1.86%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -2.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.59%59.41%59.49%60.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.611.611.6564.52%62.17%62.11%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Toronto Blue Jays (Visitante)

Predicción 40.52%2.47momio equitativo
EV -0.730%
Ventaja -0.298%
Kelly -0.504%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.24%40.59%40.51%42.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.352.352.4545.45%42.49%42.55%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -2.35%E -0.975%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-04 19:10
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-04 17:55
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-04 19:25
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-04 20:00
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.81%E -2.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 20:10
GTbets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%EV -1.14%E -0.465%K -0.788%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-04 18:40
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%EV -1.14%E -0.465%K -0.788%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-04 19:40
LowVig.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -1.95%E -0.804%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-04 18:40
BetOnline.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -1.95%E -0.804%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-04 18:40
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-04 18:40
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -8.83%E -3.93%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 20:10
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.04%E -1.87%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-04 06:10
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 19:00
Unibet (NL)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 19:00
Unibet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
ATG (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
betPARX1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 18:40
Bet Right1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.81%E -2.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 19:40
Betway1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.83%E -3.93%K -7.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 20:10
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.64%E -2.25%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.86%E -4.94%K -9.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 20:10
ReBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-04 18:00
Caesars1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-04 18:34
theScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-04 17:55
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 20:09
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 17:55
MyBookie.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 18:24
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 17:55
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 20:09
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 18:24
Betsson1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.59%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 18:25
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.00%E -2.59%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:40
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.00%E -2.59%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:40
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.00%E -2.59%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:40
BetRivers1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.23%E -2.63%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.00%E -2.59%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:40
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.97%E -1.68%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.97%E -1.68%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 20:10
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 18:20
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 18:20
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 17:55
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 20:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 20:10
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.83%E -3.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.19%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 19:10
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.42%E -3.41%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -0.730%E -0.298%K -0.504%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-04 18:00
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.42%E -3.41%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 19:40
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.42%E -3.41%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -3.97%E -1.68%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 17:55
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.42%E -3.41%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.02%E -3.81%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 19:55
Dabble (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.02%E -3.81%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.78%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 20:09
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.61%E -4.21%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:55
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.61%E -4.21%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.57%E -1.50%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 15:10
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.61%E -4.21%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.81%E -2.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 17:55
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.61%E -4.21%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.81%E -2.96%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 20:10
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -6.61%E -4.21%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -7.62%E -3.34%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 18:40
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.80%E -5.03%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 15:10
DraftKings1.55I 64.52%NM 60.66%EV -7.80%E -5.03%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.34%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 20:10
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -7.80%E -5.03%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -7.21%E -3.15%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 19:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-07-04 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-07-04 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-07-04 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-07-04 20:05
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-04 20:10
ProphetX1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-07-04 20:10
BetOpenly1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-07-04 20:05
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-07-04 20:10
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-07-04 20:10
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-07-04 19:35