The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers

Kickoff: 2026-09-10 20:10 UTC

Final: Seattle Mariners 4–3 Texas Rangers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 54.27%1.84fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.32%54.26%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.741.751.7959.52%57.31%57.31%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Rangers (Visit)

Prediction 45.73%2.19fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.999%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%45.68%45.74%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.082.092.1450.51%48.11%47.73%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 54.27%; Texas Rangers (Visit): 45.73%. For Texas Rangers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -2.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -2.86%E -1.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -2.14%E -0.999%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-09 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -2.86%E -1.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -2.14%E -0.999%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-09 17:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -3.94%E -2.23%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -3.51%E -1.66%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.94%E -2.23%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.94%E -2.23%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 17:40
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.94%E -2.23%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 17:39
betfred_uk🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.94%E -2.23%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.49%E -2.55%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.42%E -2.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 17:35
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.03%E -2.87%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.03%E -2.87%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.88%E -2.35%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 17:35
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.03%E -2.87%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.88%E -2.35%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.03%E -2.87%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.88%E -2.35%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.57%E -3.20%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -5.80%E -2.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 17:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.57%E -3.20%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 17:35
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.57%E -3.20%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.97%E -1.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:40
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:33
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.11%E -3.53%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -8.83%E -5.25%K -12.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -9.45%E -4.77%K -9.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -8.83%E -5.25%K -12.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -9.45%E -4.77%K -9.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-09 17:35
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-09-09 17:35
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%10.0%2026-09-09 17:35