Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Seattle Mariners v Minnesota Twins

2026-08-02 20:11 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Predicción 55.81%1.79momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.691%
Kelly -1.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%55.94%55.86%57.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.701.701.7762.50%58.92%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Minnesota Twins (Visitante)

Predicción 44.19%2.26momio equitativo
EV +0.761%
Ventaja +0.334%
Kelly +0.595%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.28%44.06%44.14%45.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.182.182.2848.78%45.78%45.87%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Seattle Mariners (Local): 55.81%; Minnesota Twins (Visitante): 44.19%. Para Minnesota Twins (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.26. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.28, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.761%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV +0.761%E +0.334%K +0.595%G +0.005%3.7%2026-08-02 02:10
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV +0.761%E +0.334%K +0.595%G +0.005%3.7%2026-08-02 02:10
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 19:30
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 02:09
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 02:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:10
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:10
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:10
ATG (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:10
Bally Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:10
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -0.565%E -0.251%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 02:15
FanDuel1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%EV -2.34%E -1.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%EV -1.01%E -0.449%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-02 02:30
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -1.45%E -0.650%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 02:10
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -1.45%E -0.650%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 02:10
TABtouch1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -1.45%E -0.650%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 02:14
GTbets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -1.22%E -0.691%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-01 18:45
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 00:45
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 00:45
Dabble (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 02:20
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:45
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:44
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:44
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 02:44
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 21:00
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -1.22%E -0.691%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -3.22%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-01 22:32
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -1.78%E -1.01%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -3.22%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 22:35
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -3.22%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 02:34
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -1.22%E -0.691%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-01 18:39
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -1.22%E -0.691%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-01 18:39
BetUS1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -1.22%E -0.691%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-01 20:40
MyBookie.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:53
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:44
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:45
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 02:14
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -10.71%E -6.69%K -17.85%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 02:10
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 20:54
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 20:50
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 20:54
BetAnything1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 01:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.45%E -2.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:34
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.45%E -2.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:34
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 18:44
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 21:34
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:45
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 20:50
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:44
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 00:44
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 00:45
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 02:30
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 02:30
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 00:45
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.98%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 00:44
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 00:43
Marathon Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.31%E -2.98%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 22:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.45%E -2.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.19%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 21:30
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.45%E -2.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.19%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 21:35
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.19%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 02:15
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -7.36%E -4.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -9.40%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-01 20:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-02 00:05
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-01 18:40
Novig1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-02 02:35
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 55.61%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.39%1.0%2026-08-02 02:35
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.0%2026-08-01 22:35
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%8.8%2026-08-02 00:30