The School of Odds
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San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 01:41 UTC

Final: San Diego Padres 3–5 Toronto Blue Jays

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 53.07%1.88fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.07%53.06%54.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.811.801.8657.47%55.38%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visit)

Prediction 46.93%2.13fair odd
EV +0.430%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.377%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.69%46.93%46.94%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.032.022.1451.55%49.29%49.50%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV +0.430%E +0.201%K +0.377%G +0.002%2.3%2026-07-11 01:34
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -0.978%E -0.464%K -0.881%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-11 01:39
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.45%E -0.689%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-11 01:39
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.45%E -0.689%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-11 01:34
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.45%E -0.689%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 14:53
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -1.82%E -0.984%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -1.92%E -0.917%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-11 01:19
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -1.82%E -0.984%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 01:35
BetOnline.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 01:34
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -1.29%E -0.693%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 01:14
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 01:39
MyBookie.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 01:38
Bovada1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -5.54%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 01:39
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.32%E -1.61%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-11 00:59
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 01:34
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 14:49
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 01:39
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 14:50
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 01:34
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 01:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 01:34
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:15
Marathon Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 01:39
Betway1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.66%E -4.40%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 01:39
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.26%E -2.09%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 00:59
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.26%E -2.09%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 00:59
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 00:50
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-10 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
Casumo1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
betPARX1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
ATG (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
Bally Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 00:59
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 00:59
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 00:59
BetRivers1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 00:59
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 00:59
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 01:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 01:35
Dabble (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 00:59
Betsson1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 01:39
NordicBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 01:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.82%E -0.984%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 01:24
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-10 22:44
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 01:19
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 14:49
SportsBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 00:49
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 01:39
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 14:49
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:04
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 14:49
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 14:49
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 08:15
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 01:39
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 17:10
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 01:37
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -6.61%E -3.32%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 22:44
Unibet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -3.94%E -2.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 01:29
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.54%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 01:39
Grosvenor1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -7.55%E -3.83%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 00:59
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 00:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.47%E -2.49%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 00:44
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 01:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 53.37%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%0.2%2026-07-11 01:40
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25%0.6%2026-07-11 01:35
ProphetX1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-07-11 01:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-07-11 01:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-07-11 01:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-07-11 01:30
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-11 00:49
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-11 01:30
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-07-11 01:40
BetOpenly1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%3.4%2026-07-11 01:39