Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins

2026-09-20 00:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Predicción 58.43%1.71momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.743%
Kelly -1.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.70%58.55%58.42%60.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.511.621.621.6966.23%61.78%61.73%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 41.57%2.41momio equitativo
EV +1.02%
Ventaja +0.419%
Kelly +0.712%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.10%41.45%41.58%43.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.322.302.4346.51%43.02%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: San Diego Padres (Local): 58.43%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 41.57%. Para Miami Marlins (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.41. 11 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.43, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -8.27%E -5.27%K -14.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%4.8%2026-09-19 17:34
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -8.85%E -5.67%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV +1.02%E +0.419%K +0.712%G +0.007%5.3%2026-09-19 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.44%E -6.09%K -17.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -0.229%E -0.095%K -0.163%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.44%E -6.09%K -17.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -0.229%E -0.095%K -0.163%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 17:35
GTbets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%EV -3.01%E -1.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -0.645%E -0.270%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-19 14:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -3.01%E -1.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -1.06%E -0.445%K -0.768%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-19 14:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -3.01%E -1.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -1.06%E -0.445%K -0.768%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-19 14:01
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -1.48%E -0.623%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-19 19:59
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.93%E -3.68%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.48%E -0.623%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.93%E -3.68%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.48%E -0.623%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -1.84%E -1.10%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -1.89%E -0.802%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-19 20:45
BetUS🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%EV -3.01%E -1.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%EV -1.89%E -0.802%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-19 14:01
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -2.42%E -1.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -2.31%E -0.982%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-19 14:17
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.31%E -0.982%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-19 14:01
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.31%E -0.982%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 14:01
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.26%E -0.743%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-19 13:59
Bovada🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 19:19
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.68%EV -11.77%E -7.80%K -23.08%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.32%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-19 17:34
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.18%E -2.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.55%E -1.53%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -3.97%E -1.72%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-19 15:54
DraftKings🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -3.97%E -1.72%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-19 14:01
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.42%E -1.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 18:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-19 14:01
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
888sport🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.51%E -4.07%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.39%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Caesars🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -3.01%E -1.81%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.80%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-19 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.80%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 20:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.18%E -2.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.63%E -2.48%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.63%E -2.48%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.76%E -2.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.63%E -2.48%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.18%E -2.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -6.05%E -2.68%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.59%E -2.18%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.18%E -2.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.18%E -2.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.35%E -3.30%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.93%E -3.68%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:00
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.93%E -3.68%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 13:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -1.84%E -1.10%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 20:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -7.68%E -4.86%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.85%E -5.67%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.62%E -4.94%K -9.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 14:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-19 18:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-19 18:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-19 18:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-19 18:59
ProphetX1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-09-19 19:54
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-09-19 20:28
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.5%2026-09-19 19:54