Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants

Inicio: 2026-09-03 16:37 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 5–2 San Francisco Giants

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Predicción 60.36%1.66momio equitativo
EV -1.00%
Ventaja -0.612%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.84%60.47%60.25%61.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.581.581.6466.67%63.38%63.49%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Francisco Giants (Visitante)

Predicción 39.64%2.52momio equitativo
EV +1.07%
Ventaja +0.421%
Kelly +0.692%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.41%39.53%39.75%42.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.412.402.5544.44%41.41%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 60.36%; San Francisco Giants (Visitante): 39.64%. Para San Francisco Giants (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.52. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.07%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.59%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.41%EV +1.07%E +0.421%K +0.692%G +0.007%2.1%2026-09-03 16:30
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV -0.512%E -0.204%K -0.339%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-03 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -0.909%E -0.363%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-03 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -0.909%E -0.363%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-03 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -1.31%E -0.524%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-03 16:30
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.31%E -0.524%K -0.876%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 15:05
Everygame🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-03 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-03 16:30
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.70%E -0.686%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 16:30
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -1.61%E -0.986%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -2.49%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-03 16:10
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -2.81%E -1.75%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -2.49%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-03 16:25
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 16:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 16:20
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.44%E -4.15%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 16:30
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -3.29%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 16:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.68%E -1.52%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -7.04%E -4.57%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.68%E -1.52%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -7.04%E -4.57%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.68%E -1.52%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 16:30
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 13:55
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 14:50
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 16:30
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 14:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 06:39
Betway🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 14:49
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:30
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:35
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 16:30
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 15:30
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 14:50
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.44%E -4.15%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 13:59
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.27%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.21%E -1.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 04:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 16:05
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 14:49
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -9.45%E -6.30%K -18.91%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.06%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 14:50
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.63%E -2.93%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.06%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 14:50
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.42%E -2.14%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 16:20
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.02%E -2.53%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.83%E -3.74%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -7.04%E -4.57%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV -8.04%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 16:25
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.21%E -1.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 13:05
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.23%E -3.33%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 14:05
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.44%E -4.15%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 16:25
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.44%E -4.15%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 16:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.00%E -0.612%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 16:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%0.3%2026-09-03 16:30
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.67%2.53I 39.53%NM 39.33%0.5%2026-09-03 16:30
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-09-03 16:15
ProphetX◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-09-03 16:25
BetOpenly◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-09-03 16:25
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-03 13:55
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-09-03 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-09-03 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-09-03 16:30