Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets

2026-08-09 17:35 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 55.54%1.80fair odd
EV -0.033%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%55.68%55.54%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.711.8060.61%58.52%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 44.46%2.25fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%44.32%44.46%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.2250.00%46.81%46.51%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 55.54%; New York Mets (Visit): 44.46%. For Pittsburgh Pirates (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.801. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.800, with an expected value of -0.033%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.033%E -0.018%K -0.041%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.07%E -5.54%K -11.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 18:19
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -0.588%E -0.329%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -3.52%E -1.62%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-08 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -2.25%E -1.28%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -2.63%E -1.20%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -2.25%E -1.28%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -2.63%E -1.20%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 18:50
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.36%E -1.93%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -3.92%E -2.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.85%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.48%E -2.60%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.74%E -2.71%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 18:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.18%E -0.992%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 19:05
888sport🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.85%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.41%E -2.05%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.74%E -2.71%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.63%E -3.16%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 18:59
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -6.14%E -3.63%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -1.29%E -0.582%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:50
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.14%E -3.63%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.63%E -3.16%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:59
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.25%E -4.34%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.63%E -3.16%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:59
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.25%E -4.34%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.63%E -3.16%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:58
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -7.81%E -4.70%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -3.07%E -1.41%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -7.81%E -4.70%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -8.85%E -4.32%K -8.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -7.81%E -4.70%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -8.85%E -4.32%K -8.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.36%E -5.07%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.18%E -0.992%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-08-08 18:05
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-08-08 18:04
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%2.0%2026-08-08 19:10
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%10.1%2026-08-08 19:00