Language:English
Pittsburgh Pirates v Cincinnati Reds
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)
Prediction 55.30%1.81fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.81%55.14%55.27%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.7959.88%57.72%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cincinnati Reds (Visit)
Prediction 44.70%2.24fair odd
EV -0.757%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%44.86%44.73%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.142.142.2251.02%46.79%46.73%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 55.30%; Cincinnati Reds (Visit): 44.70%. For Cincinnati Reds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.22, with an expected value of -0.757%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -1.02%E -0.570%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -1.57%E -0.884%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-01 20:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -1.57%E -0.884%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.13%E -1.20%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.65%E -0.751%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-01 04:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV -2.68%E -1.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -0.757%E -0.341%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 22:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -2.68%E -1.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.65%E -0.751%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-01 22:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -2.68%E -1.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.65%E -0.751%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -2.68%E -1.52%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -8.36%E -4.08%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.23%E -1.85%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-01 21:33 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.23%E -1.85%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -3.23%E -1.85%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -5.67%E -2.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 22:42 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.23%E -1.85%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.44%E -1.59%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-01 03:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 00:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 20:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 05:53 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-01 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-01 19:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 00:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.36%E -4.08%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 23:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 20:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 21:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 21:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 20:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.23%E -2.47%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 20:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -2.99%E -1.38%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 19:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 00:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 22:52 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.44%E -3.18%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.33%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-01 10:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.85%EV -7.10%E -4.23%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.15%EV -12.38%E -6.32%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 00:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.66%E -4.58%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-01 20:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-05-02 00:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.25% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.75% | 1.1% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-05-01 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-05-01 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-05-01 23:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06% | 2.3% | 2026-05-02 00:09 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60% | 10.7% | 2026-05-02 00:10 |