The School of Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates v Chicago Cubs

2026-07-25 22:41 UTC — MLB

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Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 55.05%1.82fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.31%55.08%55.05%55.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.731.7760%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 44.95%2.22fair odd
EV -0.222%
Edge -0.100%
Kelly -0.182%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.22%44.92%44.95%45.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.102.2250%47%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -2.55%E -1.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -1.57%E -0.717%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-24 19:45
GTbets1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV -3.10%E -1.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -0.222%E -0.100%K -0.182%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-24 18:45
LowVig.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -3.10%E -1.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.12%E -0.509%K -0.934%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-24 18:40
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -3.10%E -1.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -1.12%E -0.509%K -0.934%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-24 18:40
FanDuel1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.10%E -1.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 19:05
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.65%E -2.09%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.51%E -3.13%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 19:40
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.37%E -1.57%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 18:05
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.37%E -1.57%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 18:48
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.37%E -1.57%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 19:49
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.37%E -1.57%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 20:20
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -4.27%E -2.00%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-24 18:45
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.20%E -2.42%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-24 18:10
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 18:04
Bet Right1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 18:10
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:05
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:04
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:10
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:08
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:10
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.76%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 18:10
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.31%E -3.08%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 18:00
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.31%E -3.08%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.62%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 18:10
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.31%E -3.08%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -6.06%E -2.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 20:25
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.86%E -3.42%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.37%E -1.57%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 18:05
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.96%E -4.12%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.86%E -3.84%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 18:04
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -8.61%E -5.19%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 20:20
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -8.61%E -5.19%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 20:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-07-24 19:40
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-24 19:40
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%6.0%2026-07-24 20:25
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%10.2%2026-07-24 20:25