Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays

2026-09-26 23:16 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 49.33%2.03momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.68%49.42%49.27%51.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.921.931.9754.64%52.04%51.81%50.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante)

Predicción 50.67%1.97momio equitativo
EV -1.19%
Ventaja -0.608%
Kelly -1.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.95%50.58%50.73%51.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.881.881.9556.50%53.32%53.19%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 49.33%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante): 50.67%. Para Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.97. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.95, con un valor esperado de -1.19%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -2.83%E -1.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26%EV -1.19%E -0.608%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-26 08:04
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.72%E -1.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 07:55
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-26 03:05
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-26 06:10
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 03:09
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 03:30
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 07:54
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 07:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:55
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:53
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -4.31%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -3.21%E -1.68%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 07:40
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.31%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 06:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.31%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 03:10
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.31%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.31%E -2.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.23%E -2.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 07:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 06:15
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:53
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:54
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.29%E -2.76%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.23%E -2.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 06:15
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.29%E -2.76%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:54
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.29%E -2.76%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.29%E -2.76%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.73%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -5.29%E -2.76%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.75%E -3.09%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 03:15
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.21%E -1.68%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 03:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.21%E -1.68%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 06:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.23%E -2.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 08:00
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 04:30
ReBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 05:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.75%E -3.09%K -6.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 07:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.75%E -3.09%K -6.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 07:54
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 03:14
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 03:05
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 03:13
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 03:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.25%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 03:05
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.72%E -1.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 03:00
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.72%E -1.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.72%E -1.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 03:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.72%E -1.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 07:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.28%E -3.31%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -7.77%E -4.27%K -9.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-26 03:15
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.76%E -4.15%K -8.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.19%E -0.608%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 06:20
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -7.77%E -4.27%K -9.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%EV -10.31%E -5.82%K -13.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 03:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-09-26 07:10
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-09-26 06:50
ProphetX◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.51%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.49%1.5%2026-09-26 08:00
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-09-26 07:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-09-26 06:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-09-26 06:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-09-26 07:15
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%3.6%2026-09-26 06:50